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Stock Markets

I'm not a gambler so not participating in the markets


I expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to reach about 35,000+ by summer. Gambling is prohibited for me and the stock markets and cryptocurrencies have become a casino so I just observe and prepare for the consequences.

I see the flow of money from the governments to improve the state of wealth but believe it is unsustainable. As the years progress with these interventions the outcome will become more dire. They are inflating the value of market instruments beyond any imaginable worth and the return to reason will make the Great Depression look like a minor event.




$Canadian
Exchange Rates updated 13:30 PT weekdays

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$Gold
a self-created comparison of value

My opinion on money, the economy and markets


I see a lot of delusion when I hear financial comments on the effect of COVID-19 and the governments' response to the problem. It is mainly driven by a US centric focus on the situation; but includes the European Union, UK and many other financially creative bodies. The pouring of money, created by inventive processes among agreeable authorities, into the markets and politically influential segments of society are distorting the underlying values of economics. It is likely to eventually cause great tribulation in the world and possibly make the Great Depression look like a minor hardship.

I live in Canada where a more global view is possible than that available from the United States, but mainly I have a view based on personal living, age, international travelling and involvement, and open-minded consideration. I was seriously engaged in international relations before the pandemic and had three trips to Asia planned for 2020. Two expectations to engage on independent projects in North Korea and one through China and Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan. The COVID-19 pandemic has completely prevented these events. I see most of my international engagement has been suspended for now and likely until late 2021 or sometime in 2022. A lot depends on the development of herd immunity to the pandemic preferably by vaccination, but otherwise through infection and death. I chose the vaccine and have my first shot.

I spend a lot of time at home and some other time with the immediate family that lives close by. Even other plans for family meeting from distant places has been foregone and must wait til the pandemic subsides.

I have virtually no public activity aside from necessary shopping. All such changes in lifestyle affect the social economy. From my point of view it is not nearly as active and affluent as it was, and likely will not return to such for years. My personal finances are growing with little need for spending as was customary but only because I am past the age of employment and, along with my wife, benefit from an accumulation of resources from many years of careful management of finances.

The mass of the workforce and poor people around the world have few such benefits. There is less demand for many of services and resources than previously existed. Most of the choices made by leaders are not being made to have it go otherwise. It is also more common for people to fight for the elimination of problems than to resolve and fix them. An example is greenhouse gasses in the environment. People look for ways to eliminate them rather than working to employ them. Production of carbon gasses has become a great excuse for taxes. The people in government want the money. However, the creation of new vegetation in desert regions is desirable and possible. On the scale necessary it would greatly reduce greenhouse gasses, likely moderate the weather on a global scale and provide great opportunities for a mass of humanity. But it would necessitate global bodies of study, administration and management. It would mean a fundamental change in concepts, attitudes and social relations. It would mean a change to viewing relationships as member humanity rather than identifying primarily as a part of a segregated group.

The real history of this time will ever remain a fact of life regardless of the commentary that tries to portray it otherwise. The US may continue as the leading force of economic and political life — and many will go to their graves deluded by such ideological illusions — but reality will become more clearly seen by many. This pandemic, as most do, will cause deeper consideration of our global relationships. A greater freedom from systemic prejudice will occur. Rational thought will progress. The hardship endured will teach many good lessons.

This will be a time of crucial emergence of human potential that will form new relationships for the future and consign old prejudices to the grave along with those that embody them.


updated 12 July

Since working with currencies around the world I've been thinking about how to reconcile changing values over time.

I've decided to think of a global currency, a $Gold. For this G$1 I've assigned the value of 1 decigram of gold. I'm hoping to keep it fixed as long as I live.

This imagined currency provides a current practical value base and by using this I can keep a clear view of how currency and crypto-currency relationships around the world are changing. This is the result at this time.
Currencies for 1 metric gold dollar (G$1 = value of 1 decigram of gold [not a coin])
12/07/2021C$7.243C元37.653€4.903U$5.819R₽431.8B£4.190
23/06/2021C$7.027C元37.013€4.789U$5.709R₽417.7B£4.091
11/06/2021C$7.114C元37.474€4.835U$5.857R₽421.9B£4.146
The Gold dollar fixed at 1 decigram of gold as of 13 June
I'm using this to provide a lasting comparison of currency values
I originally used the Troy ounce system but now think the metric system may be more lasting

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Some data is not now available in machine readable form
Canadian governments particularly
seem to be using non-machine readable presentations

worldometers COVID-19 pandemic